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| #5044 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:26 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND 2.5. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KTS. DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONCENSUS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.2N 25.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 27.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.2N 30.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 14.9N 32.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 34.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 38.4W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.5N 42.2W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 44.6W 65 KT |
