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| #5092 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:10 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF CHARLEY IS ON THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 90 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SO THE WIND IS KEPT AT HURRICANE FORCE AT 15Z. HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE WAY BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. IN ANY CASE...CHARLY WILL SOON WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER LAND IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/24. THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH AMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EASTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSFORM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.2N 79.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 36.7N 76.9W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 15/1200Z 41.0N 74.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/0000Z 44.6N 69.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/1200Z 47.0N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/1200Z 49.0N 54.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 31.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
