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| #50952 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 09.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND 995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE 23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT 045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.2N 18.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.4N 17.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 14.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 40.5N 11.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT |
