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| #50977 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 PM 09.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED. MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. INITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS HEADING. A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.5N 17.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT |
