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| #51010 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 AM 10.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 VINCE HAS BECOME RAPIDLY LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AS A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS OVERTAKEN THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE EYE HAS DISINTEGRATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH VINCE OVER 23C WATERS AND THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...A CONTINUED RAPID DECLINE IS EXPECTED. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VINCE BECOMING ABSORBED OR DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT VINCE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THEN. VINCE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 070/10. AS THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.8N 16.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 36.4N 14.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
