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| #51121 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 10.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID NOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE. SSTS NEAR 22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY DECLINE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS WEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... 2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT. VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY 44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH MEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME. HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT. VINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 35.9N 11.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 37.5N 8.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND |
