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| #51158 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 PM 10.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE 34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 36.4N 9.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN |
