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| #511949 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 19.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 THE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS EVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS STRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG WITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME WEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS. ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...AS IT IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN A DAY OR SO...WITH A COMPLEX STEERING FLOW PROBABLY CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS MODEL CYCLE...THOUGH MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR ERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 31.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
