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| #512000 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 20.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
