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| #512229 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 21.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 30.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 31.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 33.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
