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| #512352 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 21.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT ALBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 37 KT AND PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL YACHTS FROM THE VOLVO OCEAN RACE HAVE BEEN SAILING NOT FAR FROM...OR THROUGH...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO...AND HAVE ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ONE OF THE YACHTS MEASURED A PRESSURE VERY CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ALBERTO WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR 080/7. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE COMPACT CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 30.5N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 31.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 33.4N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 35.4N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 37.5N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
