Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #512413 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 21.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA TO KEEP ALBERTO CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH ALBERTO AROUND 21Z INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE CYCLONE FURTHER JUSTIFIES DOWNGRADING ALBERTO TO DEPRESSION STATUS. NOAA BUOY 41002 DIRECTLY AHEAD OF ALBERTO SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH LATER TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/11. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING MORE EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ALBERTO TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 50 KT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH...ALONG WITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 22C...SHOULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 30.9N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 32.1N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 34.2N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0000Z 38.3N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
