Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #512481 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 22.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 GOES-E SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW BANDING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IS MORE THAN LIKELY TEMPORARY...GIVEN THE HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ALBERTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT. STRONG 50-60 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ALL OF WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 32.0N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 33.4N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
