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| #513651 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 26.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY. THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/4. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BERYL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERYL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN SHARPLY RECURVE. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS TAKE BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE LANDFALL...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF IT THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH BERYL LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...DRY AIR AND THE OVERALL BROAD STRUCTURE OF ITS WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BERYL WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 30.9N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 30.4N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 30.4N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1800Z 30.9N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 31.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 34.0N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 31/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN |
