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| #513779 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 27.May.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 78.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... 1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
