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| #513781 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 27.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0 CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36 AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 30.4N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z 30.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 01/0600Z 40.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
