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| #514125 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 28.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING OVER LAND. ONCE OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LATTER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. BERYL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHLY PACKED THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL IS VERY HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 30.5N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 31.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 31.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 32.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 33.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1200Z 40.0N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 44.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI |
