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| #514354 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 BERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING THE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR AN ACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF. BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN OVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84 HOURS IN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER WATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 30.9N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 31.5N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 32.4N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 33.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0600Z 35.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
