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| #514614 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 29.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK. AS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER... THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.2N 81.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 31/0000Z 34.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 36.5N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 37.7N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
