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| #514663 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 30.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 BERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001 MB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE INTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. BY 36- 48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE THROUGH 120 H. A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A POSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.1N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 38.6N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 39.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 41.0N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
