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| #514708 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 30.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BERYL IS LOSING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND WELL REMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS NORMALLY OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT BERYL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER WATER. BERYL HAS ACCELERATED AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. SINCE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 34.2N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 35.5N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 31/1200Z 37.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 01/0000Z 38.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 38.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
