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| #514791 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 30.May.2012) TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE ORGANIZATION OF BERYL HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS DIFFICULT TO STILL CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED... LEAVING A CLOUD PATTERN THAT MORE RESEMBLES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T1.0 OR LESS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CENTER/PRESSURE MINIMUM OF BERYL HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A SW/NE AXIS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A COASTAL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...BERYL IS CONSIDERED POST-TROPICAL...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. BERYL HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVERTOOK THE CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18. DESPITE THE LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...OR PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THEM...THE CYCLONE HAS DEEPENED TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. EVEN THOUGH BERYL HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE...AND HIGH SURF ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONSULT HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 34.9N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 31/0600Z 36.2N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 31/1800Z 37.8N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 01/0600Z 39.1N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 39.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 39.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN |
