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| #5156 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 SURFACE DATA AND RADAR SHOW A TIGHT CIRCULATION MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 KT AT 1736Z SO THE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/26. THE TRACK SCENARIO IS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTENING OUT AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS SO THE FORECAST IS TERMINATED AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 36.0N 77.0W 60 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 15/0600Z 39.5N 74.5W 50 KT...NEAR THE COAST 24HR VT 15/1800Z 42.7N 70.6W 30 KT...NEAR THE COAST 36HR VT 16/0600Z 44.9N 66.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/1800Z 46.5N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/1800Z 48.5N 52.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
