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| #5159 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 2100Z SAT AUG 14 2004 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES...THE TRINIDAD-TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 54.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 54.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 61.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.7N 65.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 68.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH |
