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| #5162 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW 3.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO TURN NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IF THE MODEL TREND TO THE RIGHT CONTINUES. FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.7N 28.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.4N 30.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 32.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 34.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 39.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 43.5W 80 KT |
