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| #51929 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 15.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005 ...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY. THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT |
