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| #520017 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 21.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 1100 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS RETAINS A TIGHT CIRCULATION THIS EVENING AS BEST OBSERVED BY A 2349Z METOP-A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. AS THE CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE HAS WARMED...THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CANNOT PROVIDE A DATA-T NUMBER FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER FROM SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE A RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 65 KT. A 2221Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY AROUND 55 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KT...THOUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WHILE OVER QUITE CHILLY WATERS AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...OR SOONER...IF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM. CHRIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A DAY AS IT IS ADVECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS IS PROJECTED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR HWRF...TO ABSORB THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 43.6N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 44.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 43.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA |
