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| #520110 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 22.Jun.2012) TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 1100 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012 CHRIS HAS NOT HAD SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS... SO IT IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH 40-KT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 20C...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE CYCLONE IS LOOPING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND HAS A MOTION OF 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT. CHRIS SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MERGING WITH THE OTHER LOW. THE TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 44.6N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/0000Z 43.5N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG |
