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| #5210 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 0300Z SUN AUG 15 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 56.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 287 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 56.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.3N 59.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.8N 67.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 76.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 81.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
