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| #521260 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 25.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO LOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB... WITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE STORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY CONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 29.3N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 29.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 29.7N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 29.8N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1800Z 29.8N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 30.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ |
