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| #5213 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 CHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAINING BEING THE RELATIVELY SMALL WIND CORE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS POSSESSED SINCE IT FIRST FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012 MB ARE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CHARLEY SHOULD BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR OR LESS WITH WINDS LIKELY WEAKENING BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HR AT THE MOST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/30. CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE IN 72-96 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 37.9N 74.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 40.8N 71.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 16/0000Z 44.1N 66.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 16/1200Z 46.2N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 17/0000Z 47.3N 57.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/0000Z 49.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
