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| #521430 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 26.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 DEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E. DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN SPITE OF ITS DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR APALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES OVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY BEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS. WHEREAS THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 29.0N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 29.0N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 29.0N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 29.1N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 29.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0600Z 29.9N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 30.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 31.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
