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| #521743 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:41 AM 27.Jun.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM FLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL PROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH...AND IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST WEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. DEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 12H 27/1800Z 30.0N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 32.0N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 35.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 45.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
