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| #5218 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST COURSE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN. THUS...THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.3N 56.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.3N 59.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 63.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.8N 67.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.8N 70.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 17.7N 76.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 19.3N 81.3W 75 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.1N 85.1W 80 KT |
