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| #52262 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 17.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 THE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB... AND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A DISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT TO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THESE ESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THIS REMAINS AT THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS INDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY. WILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT HAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH FASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE FIVE-DAY TIME FRAME. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT |
