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| #52294 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 18.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 982 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS A HURRICANE. IN ADDITION...TWO MICROWAVE PASSAGES FROM DIFFERENT SATELLITES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM OCEAN...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS MODELS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW. WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE ANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER... WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH SHOWS A HURRICANE MOVING EITHER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENISULA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. REMEMBER...THERE IS A LARGE VARIABILITY AND LARGE ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS. SO AT THIS TIME STAY TUNE AND MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.7N 80.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.8N 80.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 81.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.3N 82.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.6N 84.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 85.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 84.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND |
