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#5235 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 15.Aug.2004)
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004
0900Z SUN AUG 15 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 59.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.9N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 74.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 80.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 59.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART