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| #52373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 18.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 81.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W 70 KT |
