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| #5238 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:16 AM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/22. MOST OF THE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT EARL IS MOVING MORE WESTWARD AND IS...THEREFORE...SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET. WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT EARL...SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED. AFTER EARL SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH WARMER WATER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.7N 59.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.7N 62.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.9N 66.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 70.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 16.1N 74.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 18.3N 80.3W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 20.5N 84.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 87.0W 90 KT |
