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| #52433 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 19.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT |
