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| #52485 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 19.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
