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| #52544 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 19.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005 0300Z THU OCT 20 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 894 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
