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| #52618 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 20.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED. RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON... RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT |
