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| #5266 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 DANIELLE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 36 HOURS...NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE IS MOVING A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. IN RESPONSE...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT ENTERS WEAKER STEERING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON HOW SHARPLY DANIELLE WILL RECURVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GFS KEEPS DANIELLE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION IS ALREADY INDICATING A MORE POLEWARD TURN...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.0N 32.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.9N 34.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.6N 36.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.6N 38.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.7N 40.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 25.7N 42.1W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 31.0N 42.4W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 39.0W 60 KT |
