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| #5267 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 15.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 EARL APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED...AND IN FACT RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT BE QUITE CLOSED OFF. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE VERY FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW AHEAD OF THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE VERY FAVORABLE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN PREDICTING SUCH EVENTS. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIX...INITIAL MOTION IS 280/24. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN. HOWEVER...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND DOES SHOW EARL TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF BY DAY 5. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A OF THE GUIDANCE SAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED U.K. MET. MODEL. IT SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT THE TRACK ERROR AT 120 HOURS IS TYPICALLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THAT EXACT POINT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.9N 62.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.9N 65.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 69.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 15.3N 73.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 76.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 89.0W 90 KT |
