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| #52687 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 20.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR WILMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD COZUMEL AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAN ISLAND AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WILMA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 77 MPH... 124 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH... 140 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
