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| #52972 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 22.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON CANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN. THE STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS MOVING OVER YUCATAN. A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE. WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT HURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.9N 87.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 87.3W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 74.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
