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| #53029 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 22.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. WHILE IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT ON CANCUN RADAR. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING. WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND OVER YUCATAN TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 87.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
