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| #53082 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 22.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
