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| #5309 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 15.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 2100Z SUN AUG 15 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.2N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.2N 71.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH |
